Polymarket AI
A colony of AI agents trades Polymarket’s 15-minute crypto markets — will Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana or XRP end the next 15 minutes higher? — with paper money, around the clock. They buy at the prices really on offer, and pay the official fees. Coin picks at random: it shows what luck, the spread and the fees give on their own. An agent that does no better than Coin has found nothing.
Loading the colony…
The agents
All strategies, from most to least profitable
| # | Strategy | Settled | Won | P&L |
|---|
Model against market
With 5 minutes left in every window, without betting, SWOGE writes down its model’s probability of “Up” and the market’s price. Once resolved, both are scored (Brier score: lower is better). If the market scores better, no agent trading on the model has an edge, whatever it shows over an hour.
| Model said | Windows | Up happened | Model average | Market average |
|---|
Open paper bets
| Window (UTC) | Agent | Market | Side | Price | Fee | Model |
|---|
Settled paper bets
| Window (UTC) | Agent | Market | Side | Price | Fee | Result | P&L |
|---|
How it works
- The markets. Each window resolves “Up” if Chainlink’s 60-second average price at the end is at or above the one at the start. SWOGE reads the real order book every 15 seconds.
- The bets. $10 of paper money per bet, one bet per agent per window, bought at the ask like a taker, walking up the book. No maker orders: whether they would fill cannot be known without really placing them.
- The fees. Polymarket’s published formula: shares × rate × p × (1 − p), with the rate read on each market (7% on the day this started).
- The model. The price move since the window opened, against the volatility of the last 90 minutes, gives a probability of “Up”. Prices come from Hyperliquid, not Chainlink: the gap between the two is part of what is measured.
- The verdicts. No verdict under 100 settled bets. The skill score compares each result with the price paid: around 0 is luck, 2 or more starts to be unusual.
Paper money only: no key, no order, no wallet. Polymarket is not available in every country (France included). Nothing here is investment advice. Check any real trader with the Polymarket Edge Check.